Stocks Rally as August Hiring Stalls and Rate Cut Bets Return
The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August and unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021, pushing markets to price a September Fed cut.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative levels as of midday, September 4.
Risk assets jumped after the weak payrolls print flipped the Fed conversation from a possible hike to a likely cut.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all rose around 1 percent, the VIX slid under 15, and gold soared around 2.8 percent to fresh record territory as the dollar fell to a seven-week low.
Oil held its ground near 91 with WTI up slightly, still supported by Middle East supply risk.
The single-stock story is a sharp split in the AI trade, with Snowflake up around 20 percent on a data-cloud earnings beat and raised guidance while Broadcom fell around 4 percent on a soft revenue forecast, and Tesla riding the rate-cut relief up around 7 percent.
Main Story
The jobs report is the whole story today, and the speed of the Fed repricing underneath it is what matters.
- The US added just 22,000 jobs in August against roughly 50,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The mainstream read is that a cooling labor market clears the path for the Fed to cut at its September 16 meeting, with some economists now floating a 50 basis point move.
- What the tape may be underrating is that inflation has not gone away, so a Fed forced to ease into still-firm prices is a different backdrop than a clean soft landing.
Chart of the Day
Gold spiked the moment the payrolls number hit, jumping toward 4,540 as rate-cut odds surged and the dollar sank.
The move puts spot back near record territory after a choppy few weeks of hawkish Fed noise.
The level to watch now is overhead resistance around 4,577, with support back near 4,441.
Technical Trading
A few levels across the tape, drawn from Investing.com and Barchart:
- Gold resistance sits around 4,510 and then 4,577, with first support near 4,441 and an RSI around 55 that leaves room before overbought.
- The Dollar Index broke to a seven-week low, down around 0.34 percent and back under 99, a tailwind for metals and risk.
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.76 percent as traders moved to price a September cut.
Global News
- August payrolls rose just 22,000 with unemployment at 4.3 percent, the clearest sign yet that the labor market is cooling and the Fed’s next move is likely a cut.
- Snowflake jumped around 20 percent on an AI data-cloud beat while Broadcom slid around 4 percent on soft guidance, splitting the AI trade between software and chips.
- The yen stayed weak with the dollar near 156 yen even as the greenback fell broadly, and the Nikkei closed up around 1.6 percent.
- Oil headed for a strong weekly gain on continued Middle East tension and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 289 tonnes in the second quarter, up 62 percent from a year earlier and a record for the period.
Texas News
Crude holding near 91 dollars keeps margins wide for Texas producers, well above Permian breakevens even after this week’s chop.
Spring-based ExxonMobil slipped around 1 percent on the day despite the firm tape in oil.
Looking Ahead
Monday, September 7: US markets are closed for Labor Day, leaving a holiday-shortened week and thin trading to digest the jobs shock.
Friday, September 11: The August CPI report lands, the last major inflation read before the Fed and the swing factor for how large any cut might be.
Wednesday, September 16: The Fed announces its decision, where a rate cut has gone from long shot to base case in the span of a week.
The Y’all Street Podcast
Tarek Saab sits down with investor and board advisor Michael Gentile for a look at where he sees the market’s biggest opportunities hiding. He breaks down why gold could be entering a new era, what rising debt and de-dollarization could mean for the U.S. dollar, and why junior mining companies may be dramatically undervalued even at record gold prices. Michael also shares how he hunts for 20 to 50x returns, what he learned from Warren Buffett, and why emotional intelligence matters more than intelligence when markets turn against you.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
