Oil Drops Below $100 as Iran Halts Strikes on Israel
Crude fell back under $100 as the Middle East war premium drained out, lifting global stocks while gold and silver eased and Treasury yields pushed toward 5 percent.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 21.
Wall Street closed last week mixed and quiet, with the S&P 500 up around 0.17 percent, the Nasdaq around 0.39 percent, and the Dow slightly lower.
The calm is the story, with the VIX sitting near 15 even as the 10-year Treasury yield presses toward 5 percent.
Crude did the heavy lifting, sliding around 2.70 percent as the Middle East risk premium came out and dragged gold and silver lower with it.
Coinbase jumped around 11.66 percent as bitcoin ran to about $85,000, its highest since January, helped by an SEC exemption for tokenized US stocks. Nvidia added around 1.34 percent as chip names steadied, while Diamondback Energy fell around 2.30 percent with crude.
Main Story
The war premium that drove oil toward triple digits is unwinding fast now that Iran has stopped its strikes on Israel.
- WTI crude traded around $93.49, down roughly 2.70 percent and back below $100 for the first time since the flare-up, with Brent near $97, per Yahoo Finance.
- The mainstream read is straightforward, with Iran halting strikes and the Saudi East-West pipeline scare fading, the supply fear that lifted crude has no reason to stay bid.
- What the tape may be missing is how fast the risk-off trade reversed, with global equities rallying and gold and silver both giving back gains as haven demand cooled.
Chart of the Day
Crude spiked toward the mid $100s as the conflict escalated, then rolled over hard once the strikes stopped.
Price has now sliced through both its 50-day and 200-day averages near $99 to $100, which had been support.
At around $93.49 with RSI near 27, oil is getting stretched to the downside, so the $92 area is the level to watch next.
Technical Trading
A few levels on WTI crude, drawn from Investing.com:
- The 50-day average sits around $99.15 and the 200-day around $100.38, both now overhead resistance after the break.
- First support lines up near $92.14, with the daily pivot around $93.30 the level to reclaim.
- RSI is around 27, just above oversold, while MACD stays negative, so momentum is down but stretched.
Global News
- Iran halted its strikes on Israel, draining the war premium that had pushed crude toward triple digits and easing haven demand.
- Bitcoin hit about $85,000, its highest since January, after the SEC granted a five-year exemption for tokenized US stocks.
- European and Asian equities rallied, with the KOSPI up around 1.65 percent and the Nikkei around 1.38 percent as risk appetite returned.
- The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5 percent, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive corners even as stocks held.
- A US-China summit is shaping up as the market’s next hurdle, per CNBC.
Texas News
Midland based Diamondback Energy slipped around 2.30 percent as crude fell back under $100.
A company insider ranked among the world’s wealthiest disclosed a $2 billion stock sale, per Barron’s.
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Looking Ahead
Monday, September 21: Markets reopen with crude back under $100 and futures pointing higher, the first test of whether the de-escalation holds.
Wednesday, September 23: Fed officials are scheduled to speak, offering the first read on how many more moves policymakers expect.
Week of September 21: A US-China summit looms as the next hurdle for stocks, per CNBC.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
