30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2004 as Bond Selloff Hits Stocks

The 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2004 after a hotter-than-expected PMI reading fueled bets on another Fed rate hike, pulling stocks, gold and silver lower together.

Market Snapshot

All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 24.

The Dow slipped around 0.68 percent and the S&P 500 fell around 0.75 percent, while the Nasdaq led losses, down around 1.13 percent as long-term borrowing costs kept climbing.

The VIX jumped around 5.53 percent toward 16, and gold and silver both eased even as the broader selloff spread, a sign real yields are doing the driving today.

Oil bucked the trend, up around 1.66 percent as fresh US and Iran tensions kept a war premium in the price.

Paychex sank around 8.77 percent after conservative guidance overshadowed a beat-and-raise quarter.

Expedia dropped around 7.72 percent on fears Meta’s new Muse AI agent could book travel without ever touching a booking site.

APA Corp climbed around 3.31 percent as the Houston-based driller rode the oil rally.

Main Story

Treasury yields did the heavy lifting today, and stocks, gold and silver all felt it.

• The 30-year Treasury yield touched around 5.44 percent, its highest level since 2004, after September’s flash PMI came in far hotter than expected, per Bloomberg.
• The mainstream read is that stronger growth data is pushing traders to price in another Fed rate hike, lifting the whole yield curve and squeezing anything priced off it.
• What the tape may be missing is that gold and silver fell right alongside stocks instead of acting as a hedge, a sign this selloff is being driven by liquidity and real yields rather than fear alone.

Chart of the Day

The S&P 500 slipped around 0.75 percent to close near 7,706, pulling back from last week’s highs as the bond selloff picked up speed.

The index still sits above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and RSI near 47 shows the pullback hasn’t done much technical damage yet.

Support lines up near the 7,705 pivot, the level to watch if higher yields keep pressing on stocks.

Technical Trading

A few levels on the S&P 500, drawn from Investing.com:

• RSI(14) sits around 47.3, neutral after today’s pullback and no longer in overbought territory.
• The index trades above both its 50-day average near 7,667 and its 200-day average near 7,685, despite today’s slide.
• MACD is positive around 12.7, still confirming the broader uptrend even as yields bite.
• Pivot support sits near 7,705 with resistance at 7,719, a tight range for a market digesting higher rates.

Global News

1. Asian markets extended their slide overnight, with tech-heavy shares across the region following Wall Street’s AI-linked selloff lower.
2. Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel as US and Iran tensions escalated with little sign of progress in talks, per the Wall Street Journal.
3. The OECD lifted its 2026 US growth forecast to 2.2 percent on AI investment strength, while flagging another likely Fed rate hike this year.
4. Meta’s new Muse AI booking agent sent travel stocks tumbling, with Expedia, Airbnb and Booking Holdings all sliding on disintermediation fears.
5. Global debt hit a record $365 trillion, with economists warning of a “vicious cycle” as borrowing costs climb worldwide.

Texas News

Houston-based APA Corp jumped around 3.31 percent as the independent driller rode today’s oil rally higher on renewed US and Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

The move adds to a strong year for the Permian and Gulf Coast producer, up more than 80 percent year to date as energy names outperform the broader market.

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Looking Ahead

Thursday, September 24: The Trump-Xi summit in Washington continues with AI safety and trade on the agenda, while Costco and Nike report earnings after the close.

Tuesday, September 30: Micron reports earnings, a key test of whether the memory chip rally can hold up under higher rates.

Wednesday, October 15: Charles Schwab reports earnings, the first real read on how rate-sensitive brokerages are holding up against surging long-term yields.

The Y’all Street Podcast

In Episode 50, Tarek sits down with entrepreneur, investor and film producer J. Eustace Wolfington to trace the origin of Half-A-Car and how challenging the traditional way Americans bought cars helped reshape the modern leasing model. Wolfington shares the eight principles his father gave him at Notre Dame, the persistence it took to win over Ford and thousands of dealerships, and the story behind producing the films Bella and Cabrini.

Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.