Brent Tops $100 as China Halts October Fuel Exports
Oil’s sharpest jump in weeks compounded multidecade-high Treasury yields as investors parsed a mixed finish and digested Micron’s record quarter a day after its results crossed the tape.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, October 1.
The Dow fell around 0.86 percent to 50,906.05 and the S&P 500 slipped about 0.25 percent to 7,651.54, while the Nasdaq added roughly 0.24 percent to 26,861.06 as traders weighed a fresh energy shock against still-resilient demand for AI-linked chips.
The VIX rose around 0.86 percent to 16.48 as Treasury yields held near multidecade highs, while gold and silver each firmed modestly, up around 0.36 and 0.65 percent, and the Dollar Index gained about 0.38 percent.
Micron, Exxon Mobil and Bank of America are today’s stocks in the news.
Micron traded little changed, around 0.09 percent lower, after reporting record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379 percent from a year ago, as investors weighed heavy capital spending plans against a strong first-quarter outlook.
Exxon Mobil rose around 0.87 percent as the China export news lifted energy shares broadly, while Bank of America slipped about 0.96 percent as elevated long-term yields renewed concern over funding costs across the banking sector.
Main Story
Oil, not stocks or metals, delivered the morning’s biggest jolt as the third trading day of the fourth quarter opened.
- WTI jumped more than 2 percent to around $92.48 a barrel and Brent topped $100 after China’s PetroChina canceled a batch of October gasoline and jet-fuel export shipments to preserve domestic supply.
- The mainstream read ties the move to Chinese refiners prioritizing their own fuel inventories ahead of seasonal demand, tightening the global export pool just as yields sit near multidecade highs.
- What the market may be missing is that a fresh supply shock on top of multidecade-high borrowing costs has drawn little reaction from equities, a gap that could close fast if Friday’s jobs report reinforces inflation concerns.
Chart of the Day
West Texas Intermediate trades around $92.48 today, up roughly 2.3 percent after China’s PetroChina suspended a batch of October fuel-export shipments to preserve domestic supply.
The move pushed prices back toward the $94.55 resistance zone that has capped the recent recovery, where the upper boundary of oil’s months-long descending channel meets a horizontal barrier technical desks are watching closely.
A break above that zone would open the path toward $100, while a reversal would test support back near $88.80.
Technical Trading
A few levels drawn from investing.com-sourced technical analysis:
- WTI is approaching the $94.55 resistance zone, where a falling trendline from the September 16 high near $106.60 meets horizontal resistance, with $100 the next hurdle and support at $90.09 and $88.00.
- Gold is consolidating between roughly $4,140 and $4,220, with resistance at $4,213 to $4,222 and support near $4,148 to $4,150.
- Silver is testing trendline support near $60.90 to $60.78 after slipping from the mid-$60s, with resistance next at $63.34 and $64.84.
Global News
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September releases today at 10 a.m. Eastern, with forecasts calling for 54.8 versus August’s 54.6.
- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said boosting the country’s economic competitiveness will help underpin confidence in the yen, after the currency weakened to around 158.21 per dollar on a Bank of Japan summary that damped bets for a near-term rate hike.
- The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.29 percent and the 30-year near 5.63 percent, both still close to this week’s multidecade highs.
- Micron posted record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379 percent year over year, and guided to roughly $61.5 billion for its fiscal first quarter.
Texas News
Texas Capital Bancshares is set to begin trading on the new Texas Stock Exchange on October 8 under its existing ticker, TCBI, the first homegrown Texas financial services firm listed on the exchange.
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Looking Ahead
Friday, October 2: The September jobs report lands, a critical read on whether the labor market is cooling fast enough to keep the Fed’s rate path intact even as oil-driven inflation risk resurfaces.
Monday, October 5: The ISM Services PMI tests whether strength in the services sector can offset the week’s manufacturing and trade jitters.
Wednesday, October 7: Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting post, the week’s main event for fresh clues on the rate-path debate.
The Y’all Street Podcast
In Episode 50, Tarek sits down with entrepreneur, investor and film producer J. Eustace Wolfington to trace the origin of Half-A-Car and how challenging the traditional way Americans bought cars helped reshape the modern leasing model. Wolfington shares the eight principles his father gave him at Notre Dame, the persistence it took to win over Ford and thousands of dealerships, and the story behind producing the films Bella and Cabrini.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
