Y’all Street Daily
Stock futures slipped and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high as rising crude revived inflation worries.
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, August 18.
Market Snapshot
Stocks closed lower Monday and futures pointed to more weakness Tuesday, with the Nasdaq-100 leading the pullback as investors trimmed risk.
Rising oil and climbing long-term yields did most of the damage, while the VIX ticked back up toward 16.
Gold and silver both eased, giving back a little of their recent run.
Energy and megacap tech set the tone among the stocks in the news today.
Home Depot heads into Tuesday’s report roughly flat after a quiet Monday, Nike slid to levels last seen in 2014, and Meta gave back more than 3 percent as megacap tech came under pressure.
Main Story
Oil is back in the driver’s seat as Washington turns up the heat on Tehran.
- President Trump said he intends to inflict more economic pain on Iran and threatened to strike Oman if it interferes with US plans around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI to around 83.93 and Brent near 91, the highest in over two weeks.
- The mainstream read is a straightforward geopolitical risk premium, with traders pricing in the chance that crude shipments through Hormuz get disrupted.
- What the tape may be underpricing is the thin cushion behind it, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1982 if a real supply shock hits.
Chart of the Day
WTI has quietly climbed off its early-month lows and now sits just under the 84.84 resistance that capped it two weeks ago.
A clean break above that line would open the door toward the upper 80s, while 81.76 is the level bulls need to defend on any pullback.
For now the trend is higher, and the catalyst is squarely political.
Technical Trading
A few levels worth watching across the macro picture.
- WTI faces resistance around 84.84, with the next hurdle near 89.24; support sits around 81.76.
- The 30-year Treasury yield pushed to 5.31 percent, a 19-year high, and the 10-year hit 4.72 percent.
- Gold is holding above roughly 4,376 support with resistance near 4,441, while silver defends its 64 breakout zone.
Global News
- Trump threatened fresh economic pressure on Iran and to strike Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, the spark behind Tuesday’s oil move.
- The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since 1982, shrinking the buffer against any supply shock.
- Long-term borrowing costs jumped worldwide, with an AI-driven borrowing spree and government deficits lifting yields.
- Asia sold off hard, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.54 percent and Korea’s Kospi off 1.55 percent.
Texas News
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, whose largest caverns sit on the Texas Gulf Coast at Bryan Mound and Big Hill, drew fresh scrutiny as it fell to its lowest level in more than four decades.
Higher crude tied to Hormuz risk tends to favor the Permian Basin producers that anchor the state economy.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, August 18: Home Depot reports before the bell, the first major read on the US consumer this week.
Thursday, August 21: Walmart reports, the retail bellwether investors will watch after Friday’s soft July retail sales.
The Y’all Street Podcast
Tarek sits down with Tom Opre, a filmmaker, conservationist and wildlife advocate behind documentaries like Killing the Shepherd, on the difference between conservation and preservation and why sustainable wildlife management stays so contested. He explains how modern conservation grew out of responsible resource management and uses storytelling to show audiences what that work looks like on the ground.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
