Oil Surges as Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Ceasefire Offer
Gold and silver pulled back sharply from recent highs and the VIX jumped as Washington’s rejection of Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil up more than four percent.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 28.
The VIX jumped around 8.50 percent as Washington’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal put geopolitical risk back on the table, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all traded lower, down around 0.58, 0.52 and 0.95 percent.
Oil surged around 4.24 percent on the news even as gold and silver both retreated from recent highs.
Nvidia slipped around 1.23 percent as renewed scrutiny over AI safety weighed on chipmakers broadly.
Okta fell around 5.54 percent despite several analysts raising price targets on the stock in recent sessions, a disconnect traders flagged as notable.
Occidental Petroleum climbed around 4.00 percent, tracking crude’s advance as one of the more direct beneficiaries of the oil spike.
Main Story
Washington’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to reopen a critical oil chokepoint put the geopolitical risk premium back into crude.
- The Trump administration rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, citing insufficient guarantees, and WTI crude jumped around 4.24 percent to near $96.33 on the news.
- The mainstream read is that this reverses last week’s de-escalation optimism and puts the seven-month standoff back on uncertain footing heading into the new week.
- What the tape may be missing is that gold and silver fell anyway, down around 1.10 percent and 4.98 percent, a sign the metals rally may have gotten ahead of itself after weeks of steady gains.
Chart of the Day
WTI crude broke through its Bollinger midline resistance near $93.55 today, trading around $96.33 after Washington’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal removed a key de-escalation catalyst.
The move clears a level that had capped the advance in recent sessions, with the upper Bollinger band near $100.90 now the next resistance.
A Bearish Belt Hold pattern near $92.61 gave way as the news broke, confirming the shift in momentum.
Technical Trading
A few levels on WTI crude, drawn from Investing.com:
- Price now trades above its former Bollinger midline resistance near $93.55, which should act as support on any pullback.
- The upper Bollinger band near $100.90 is the next resistance level bulls would need to clear.
- Crude has held above its 100-day moving average near $89 to $91 through the recent consolidation.
- MACD remains positive, confirming the near-term uptrend even as the move accelerates.
Global News
- The Trump administration rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, citing insufficient verification of the terms.
- Renewed scrutiny over AI safety practices weighed on chipmakers broadly, with Nvidia among the names pulling back.
- Okta fell sharply despite a wave of price target increases from covering analysts, a divergence that drew attention on the tape.
- Gold and silver both retreated from recent highs, giving back some of their multi-week advance as the dollar index firmed slightly.
- Occidental Petroleum and other energy names advanced alongside crude as the oil complex repriced the renewed Hormuz risk.
Texas News
Texas, the nation’s top oil-producing state, stands to benefit most directly from today’s crude surge after WTI jumped around 4.24 percent on the Hormuz rejection.
Permian producers, who weathered lower prices earlier this year, are positioned to capture the upside as the basin’s low breakeven costs keep margins wide.
.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, September 30: Micron reports earnings, a key test of whether the memory chip rally can hold up under still-elevated long-term yields.
Thursday, October 1: Nike reports fiscal first-quarter earnings, the first real read on its turnaround following last week’s downgrade to underperform at BofA.
Friday, October 3: The September jobs report lands, a fresh read on whether the labor market is cooling enough to keep the Fed’s easing path intact.
The Y’all Street Podcast
In Episode 50, Tarek sits down with entrepreneur, investor and film producer J. Eustace Wolfington to trace the origin of Half-A-Car and how challenging the traditional way Americans bought cars helped reshape the modern leasing model. Wolfington shares the eight principles his father gave him at Notre Dame, the persistence it took to win over Ford and thousands of dealerships, and the story behind producing the films Bella and Cabrini.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
