Stocks Steady Into August CPI as Oil Eases Off $100
Futures point higher after a four-day selloff, with a hot inflation print the last hurdle before the Fed decides next week.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 11.
Stocks are trying to snap a four-day losing streak, with Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures pointing higher into this morning’s August CPI.
The dollar firmed to just above 99, while gold and silver steadied after Thursday’s yield-driven plunge.
Oil is the swing factor, with WTI easing around 3.35 percent to near $99 after closing above $102 on Thursday.
Company news cut both ways.
Apple rose around 3.56 percent as investors digested its new folding iPhone Duo, Spring-based Exxon Mobil added around 0.61 percent on the sustained oil premium, and Dell fell around 5.35 percent as rising yields pressured the AI-momentum names it now leads.
Main Story
The four-day selloff is not about earnings, it is about oil and interest rates climbing together into the year’s most important inflation print.
- Stocks fell for a fourth straight session Thursday as WTI closed up 6.7 percent at $102.48 and the 2-year Treasury yield jumped around 15 basis points to a more than two-year high, per Capital.com.
- The mainstream read is a straight inflation squeeze, with the August CPI due at 8:30 a.m. ET, expected up 0.4 percent on the month and 3.4 percent from a year ago, set to decide whether the Fed hikes or holds next week as markets price roughly a 70 percent chance of a hike.
- What the tape may be missing is the war, after Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait and President Trump said the conflict likely runs through the midterms, keeping a bid under oil and the inflation it feeds.
Chart of the Day
WTI has climbed from a late-August base near $84 to a $102.48 close on Thursday, nearly all of it a war premium tied to the US-Iran conflict.
This morning it is easing around 3.35 percent to near $99, back below the $100 handle that now acts as the pivot.
With the 100-day average still above the 200-day, the burden is on sellers to prove the trend has turned.
Technical Trading
A few levels across the tape, drawn from StoneX, Barchart, and FX Daily Report:
- WTI resistance sits at the $104.93 swing high and the $107 Fibonacci extension, with support at the $95.56 hundred percent Fib and then $90.98, while the 100-day average stays above the 200-day.
- Gold is defending support near $4,280, with the $4,440 to $4,460 zone as first resistance and the 200-day around $4,546 capping the upside.
- Silver is testing the crucial $64 floor, with $70 the ceiling of its multi-week range and $60 the level bulls want to avoid.
Global News
- WTI eased around 3.35 percent to near $99 and Brent slipped to about $104, though both remain on track for weekly gains near 8 percent.
- Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha and satellite imagery showed smoke near Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, raising fresh supply fears along the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- The August CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus at 0.4 percent monthly, 3.4 percent annual, and core at 0.2 percent, the last inflation read before next week’s Fed meeting.
- President Trump said he has no regrets over the Iran war and expects it to run past the November midterms, comments Capital.com tied to the renewed spike in energy prices.
Texas News
Spring-based Exxon Mobil added around 0.61 percent as the war premium kept crude near $100, extending the tailwind for Permian producers.
Dallas-based AT&T weighed in on Apple’s new folding iPhone, with its CEO calling the Duo a positive for upgrade demand into the holidays.
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Looking Ahead
Friday, September 11: The August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the last major inflation print before the Fed, with a hot number likely to cement a rate-hike bet.
Monday, September 15: The FOMC begins its two-day meeting, where a hold is the base case but a hike is a live risk if CPI runs hot.
Wednesday, September 16: The Fed announces its decision, the first real test of how far the oil-driven inflation scare has moved policy.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
