Oil Tops $103 on Hormuz Attacks as AI Warning Hits Chips
Crude spikes after fresh Strait of Hormuz attacks and a Saudi pipeline shutdown, while a call from top AI labs to slow frontier development drags Nvidia and AMD lower ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 13.
Stocks are set to open lower, with S&P futures off around 0.63 percent and Nasdaq futures down around 1.45 percent as the AI-chip complex leads the decline.
Oil is the macro driver, with WTI up around 3.09 percent past $103 while gold and silver sell off, down around 1.81 and 2.68 percent.
The dollar and VIX are both higher, a classic risk-off setup heading into Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Nvidia fell around 2.50 percent and Advanced Micro Devices dropped around 5.74 percent premarket after top AI labs urged the industry to slow frontier development, while Spring, Texas based Exxon Mobil rose around 1.48 percent on the crude spike.
Main Story
The week opens on a defensive footing, with two separate shocks landing at once.
- WTI jumped around 3.09 percent past $103 and Brent neared $108 after Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia and seized the island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab strait on Sunday, prompting Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, per TheStreet.
- Capital.com’s Daniela Hathorn called oil the biggest geopolitical story, noting the shock feeds straight into rates after Friday’s hot CPI pushed the odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike Wednesday to roughly 85 percent.
- The quieter catalyst is Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s essay urging a slowdown in frontier AI development, which hit Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom premarket and could matter more for tech than oil if the theme sticks.
Chart of the Day
WTI has climbed from a late-August base near $85 to just past $103, almost all of it a war premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
After a brief pullback to around $99 last Thursday, it spiked again on Sunday’s attacks and now sits just under resistance around $104.54.
With price above its 50, 100, and 200-day averages and RSI near 59, momentum is bullish but not yet stretched.
Technical Trading
A few levels on crude, drawn from Investing.com’s technical page:
- WTI is above every major moving average, with the 50-day around $101.42 and the 200-day near $94.77 as layered support.
- Resistance sits at the R2 pivot around $104.54, with the classic R1 near $104 the first hurdle and the daily pivot around $103.16.
- RSI reads about 59 and MACD is positive at 0.52, momentum that confirms the move without flashing overbought.
Global News
- Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia and captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab strait on Sunday, disrupting regional energy shipping.
- Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after accusing Iraq-based militants of drone attacks, removing a key route used to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent crude neared $108 after already gaining almost 9 percent last week, keeping upward pressure on global inflation.
- Anthropic and OpenAI leaders publicly called for slower frontier AI development on safety grounds, a first-of-its-kind industry appeal that rattled chip stocks.
- The FOMC begins its two-day meeting Tuesday, with markets pricing roughly an 85 percent chance of the first rate hike in three years.
Texas News
Spring-based Exxon Mobil rose around 1.48 percent premarket as the crude spike lifted energy names, extending the tailwind for Permian producers.
Its LNG chief told CNBC that gas fundamentals remain healthy despite disruptions to Middle East flows.
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Looking Ahead
Tuesday, September 15: The FOMC begins its two-day meeting as August retail sales test whether higher gas prices are pinching consumers.
Wednesday, September 16: The Fed delivers its rate decision and projections, the biggest event of the week with a hike now the base case.
Thursday, September 17: Weekly jobless claims offer a fresh labor read as the market digests the Fed’s move.
The Y’all Street Podcast
Tarek Saab sits down with investor and board advisor Michael Gentile for a look at where he sees the market’s biggest opportunities hiding. He breaks down why gold could be entering a new era, what rising debt and de-dollarization could mean for the U.S. dollar, and why junior mining companies may be dramatically undervalued even at record gold prices. Michael also shares how he hunts for 20 to 50x returns, what he learned from Warren Buffett, and why emotional intelligence matters more than intelligence when markets turn against you.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
