Gold Holds Near $4,150 as 10-Year Yield Hits 2007 High

Gold traded near $4,150 today, September 29, after sliding to a seven-week low near $4,123, as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 near 5.24 percent.

Market Snapshot

All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 29.

Gold traded around $4,150.60 today, September 29, as Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007 near 5.24 percent on higher odds of an October Fed rate hike, pulling the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower by around 0.67, 0.77 and 0.95 percent while the VIX eased around 1.37 percent.

Gold and silver held on to modest gains of around 0.89 and 0.33 percent even after both metals touched multi-week lows earlier in the session, and oil slipped around 0.85 percent as Monday’s Hormuz-driven spike cooled.

FICO tumbled around 13.42 percent after reports that the Federal Housing Finance Agency is pushing lenders toward alternative credit-scoring models, threatening the company’s grip on mortgage underwriting.

Qualcomm slipped around 5.63 percent on renewed insider-selling disclosures and reports of friction with Samsung’s foundry unit, while Boeing eased a modest 0.27 percent as the FAA opened a fresh review of a software issue on the 737 Max.

Main Story

Rising Treasury yields, not metals or geopolitics, drove the tape as traders repriced the odds of another Fed rate hike.

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.24 percent, its highest level since 2007, as futures markets pushed October rate-hike odds to around 72.5 percent from 57.6 percent a week ago.
• The mainstream read is that Monday’s oil spike following Washington’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal reignited inflation concerns, reinforced by Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s recent comments flagging persistent price pressure.
• What the tape may be missing is that gold and silver held their gains despite the same rate backdrop that usually weighs on non-yielding metals, suggesting hard-asset demand has not fully unwound.

Chart of the Day

Gold slid to a seven-week low near $4,123 in early trading before recovering to trade around $4,150.60, as the metal remains pinned below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The pullback came alongside oversold momentum readings, a combination that has often preceded short-term bounces in gold’s longer uptrend this year.

Support sits near $4,123 and then $4,100, while resistance now runs through $4,185, with $4,227 and $4,246 as the next levels above that.

Technical Trading

A few levels on gold, drawn from TradingView-sourced technical analysis:

• Price trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a bearish setup traders are watching for a reclaim.
• Support holds near $4,123, with a deeper floor around $4,100 if selling resumes.
• Resistance sits near $4,185, followed by $4,227 and $4,246 as the next hurdles for bulls.
• Momentum oscillators remain in oversold territory, consistent with the metal’s recent bounce off session lows.

Global News

1. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.24 percent, its highest level since 2007, as October Fed rate-hike odds rose to near 73 percent.
2. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is reportedly pushing lenders toward alternative credit-scoring models, pressuring FICO’s mortgage-underwriting business.
3. The FAA opened a new review of a software issue affecting Boeing’s 737 Max fleet.
4. Reports of an Anthropic funding round valuing the company well above its prior mark, alongside news that OpenAI scrapped an internal model, kept AI-sector scrutiny elevated.
5. Saudi Arabia moved to restore oil flows through an affected pipeline, adding a supply-side offset to Monday’s Hormuz-driven price spike.

Texas News

Morgan Stanley announced a $684 million expansion of its Dallas operations hub, a project expected to create more than 3,800 jobs, according to Governor Greg Abbott’s office.

The investment adds to a string of financial-sector relocations and expansions into North Texas over the past year.

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Looking Ahead

Wednesday, September 30: Micron reports earnings, a key test of whether the memory chip rally can hold up under still-elevated long-term yields.

Thursday, October 1: Nike reports fiscal first-quarter earnings, the first real read on its turnaround following last week’s downgrade to underperform at BofA.

Friday, October 2: The September jobs report lands, a fresh read on whether the labor market is cooling enough to keep the Fed’s easing path intact.

The Y’all Street Podcast

In Episode 50, Tarek sits down with entrepreneur, investor and film producer J. Eustace Wolfington to trace the origin of Half-A-Car and how challenging the traditional way Americans bought cars helped reshape the modern leasing model. Wolfington shares the eight principles his father gave him at Notre Dame, the persistence it took to win over Ford and thousands of dealerships, and the story behind producing the films Bella and Cabrini.

Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.