30-Year Yield Hits 2002 High as Micron Earnings Loom

Traders held Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures in a tight range on September 30 as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, with today’s PCE report and Micron’s earnings still ahead.

Market Snapshot

All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, September 30.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened modestly higher around 0.36, 0.24 and 0.13 percent on September 30 while the VIX ticked up around 1.37 percent ahead of today’s PCE inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

The 30-year Treasury yield pushed to around 5.62 percent, its highest level since June 2002, and the 10-year held near its own 2007 high around 5.3 percent.

Gold and silver eased around 0.18 and 0.45 percent after Tuesday’s sharp bounce, and oil edged higher around 0.44 percent on lingering Middle East supply concerns.

Micron rose around 1.55 percent heading into tonight’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, the biggest single catalyst of the week for the AI trade.

Nvidia gained around 1.00 percent after reports that Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus targets a valuation near $2 trillion, keeping AI-sector scrutiny elevated.

Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest backer, traded roughly flat as investors weigh the payback timeline on AI capital spending.

Main Story

Treasury yields, not stocks or metals, are driving the conversation as the third quarter closes.

• The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.62 percent, its highest level since June 2002, while the 10-year held near a fresh 2007 high around 5.3 percent, on heavy bond supply and deficit concerns.
• The mainstream read ties the move to today’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge, alongside a softening labor market after consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014.
• What the market may be missing is that stocks have barely flinched despite yields at multidecade highs, suggesting investors are more focused on tonight’s Micron results than on the bond market’s warning signs.

Chart of the Day

Micron trades around $1,070 heading into tonight’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, up roughly 276 percent this year and within striking distance of its 52-week high of $1,255.

Options markets are pricing a relatively contained move for a stock this volatile, with implied volatility near 60 percent sitting below its 82 percent realized volatility over the past year.

The stock has traded in a range of around $1,058 to $1,083 over the past day, a tight band that will likely break sharply once results cross the tape after the close.

Technical Trading

A few levels drawn from Kitco, Société Générale and Investing.com-sourced technical analysis.

• Gold closed below its 200-day moving average near $4,244, with support around $4,095 and resistance near $4,315.
• Gold sliced through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement at $4,298 and now sits just above the 78.6 percent level around $4,174.
• Silver broke below $62.30 support and extended toward $60.90, with $60 seen as the next level to defend.

Global News

1. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the August PCE report, releases today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern alongside personal income and spending data.
2. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest level since 2014, adding to signs of a cooling labor market.
3. Brent crude rose around 0.6 percent to near $103 a barrel on reports that Middle East crude shipments are nearing pre-conflict levels.
4. China’s official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1 in September, while Australia’s central bank raised rates to 4.60 percent after inflation ran at 4 percent year over year.
5. Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus reportedly targets a valuation near $2 trillion, adding to AI-sector scrutiny after OpenAI shelved its next model over safety concerns.

Texas News

Morgan Stanley’s $684 million Dallas expansion, backed by a $44 million Texas Enterprise Fund grant and expected to create more than 3,800 jobs, kept generating coverage this week.

Dillard’s and Texas Capital Bancshares are both set to move their primary stock listings to the new Texas Stock Exchange in early October.

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Looking Ahead

Wednesday, September 30: Micron reports earnings, a key test of whether the memory chip rally can hold up under still-elevated long-term yields.

Thursday, October 1: Nike reports fiscal first-quarter earnings, the first real read on its turnaround following last week’s downgrade to underperform at BofA.

Friday, October 2: The September jobs report lands, a fresh read on whether the labor market is cooling enough to keep the Fed’s easing path intact.

The Y’all Street Podcast

In Episode 50, Tarek sits down with entrepreneur, investor and film producer J. Eustace Wolfington to trace the origin of Half-A-Car and how challenging the traditional way Americans bought cars helped reshape the modern leasing model. Wolfington shares the eight principles his father gave him at Notre Dame, the persistence it took to win over Ford and thousands of dealerships, and the story behind producing the films Bella and Cabrini.

Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.