Nvidia Earnings and July PCE: What Markets Are Watching
Nvidia earnings and July core PCE headline Wednesday’s session, with stocks near record highs and the AI trade hinging on a single after-the-close guide.
Market Snapshot
Equities drifted higher Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading at plus 0.66 percent as chipmakers firmed into the year’s most-watched earnings print.
The VIX slipped under 15.5 and the dollar held near 99, a calm backdrop that says traders are positioning for the report rather than hedging against it.
Gold eased toward 4,648 while silver held above 68, and WTI fell below 81 as the Iran risk premium kept draining out of crude.
Nvidia firmed 2.2 percent to snap a seven-day losing streak into its own results, AMD jumped nearly 5 percent on a Raymond James upgrade, and Exxon slid 2 percent as oil extended its slide.
Main Story
Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter earnings after the close on August 26, with Wall Street expecting roughly 92 billion dollars in revenue, up about 95 percent from a year ago, according to analyst consensus compiled by Kiplinger.
That single report is the biggest swing factor on the tape today.
- Most of the growth is expected to come from the data center segment, with adjusted earnings seen near 2.09 dollars a share, up from 1.05 a year ago.
- A strong data-center guide would validate the entire AI trade and give a market near record highs room to keep running.
- The risk is concentration, since any wobble on data-center demand or margins could unwind the AI bid across chip names in one session.
Chart of the Day
Nvidia snapped a seven-day slide Tuesday, bouncing 2.2 percent to close around 213.70 after holding its 50-day average near 207.65.
The rebound puts the stock back in the middle of its recent range, with resistance up near 224 marking the prior high.
Tonight’s guide decides which of those levels gets tested first.
Technical Trading
A few levels worth watching across the tape.
- Nvidia is holding above its 50-day average near 207.65 with resistance at the 224 prior high, and its 14-day RSI sits back in neutral after Tuesday’s bounce.
- WTI has broken support near 82 and is testing 80, with its RSI sliding toward oversold as the war premium unwinds.
- Silver is pressing resistance around 69 with a 14-day RSI near 70, firm but bumping against overbought, while gold holds support near 4,600.
Global News
- Nvidia reports after the close, the last major AI bellwether of the season and the single biggest swing factor for tech.
- The July core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due this morning with consensus at 3.3 percent, still well above target.
- Crude fell again as the United States and Iran moved toward an interim deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, easing supply fears.
- Treasury yields steadied after last week’s spike, taking some pressure off rate-sensitive growth names.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday, the week’s next big test for the rate outlook.
Texas News
ExxonMobil shares fell 2 percent as the oil selloff tested the Irving giant’s push toward record profits, a reminder of how tightly Texas energy names track the crude tape.
Lower pump prices from the same slide, though, land as a quiet tailwind for consumers across the state.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday, August 26: Nvidia reports after the close and July core PCE lands before the open, back-to-back tests of both the AI trade and the inflation picture.
Thursday, August 27: Traders get the first full session to react to Nvidia’s guide, with weekly jobless claims also on the calendar.
Friday, August 28: Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, closing the week with fresh signals on the path for rates.
The Y’all Street Podcast
Tarek Saab sits down with investor and board advisor Michael Gentile for a look at where he sees the market’s biggest opportunities hiding. He breaks down why gold could be entering a new era, what rising debt and de-dollarization could mean for the U.S. dollar, and why junior mining companies may be dramatically undervalued even at record gold prices. Michael also shares how he hunts for 20 to 50x returns, what he learned from Warren Buffett, and why emotional intelligence matters more than intelligence when markets turn against you.
Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Fortune. Technical levels from Investing.com and FXStreet. News from Reuters, Al Jazeera and CNBC.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.
